Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.591512 22.353383 24.256261 26.474568 29.002809 31.810384 35.186136
2025-08-24 17.515613 19.876689 22.602703 26.022607 30.256322 35.405708 42.271968
2025-08-31 15.529729 18.202567 21.445553 25.751931 31.452071 38.943329 49.911105
2025-09-07 14.098102 16.941413 20.527745 25.513498 32.492820 42.306627 57.966673
2025-09-14 13.043427 15.997570 19.845718 25.408558 33.588114 45.820836 67.020112
2025-09-21 12.134376 15.131945 19.141417 25.130696 34.318502 48.835218 76.008947
2025-09-28 11.758020 14.928875 19.294776 26.059812 36.954319 55.327301 93.192778
2025-10-05 11.109575 14.286853 18.753282 25.861573 37.732295 58.785897 105.704440
2025-10-12 10.574433 13.758339 18.320384 25.764590 38.634643 62.617504 120.533645
2025-10-19 10.206047 13.438116 18.160942 26.071048 40.260450 68.174250 142.116350
2025-10-26 9.756991 12.966751 17.729799 25.874554 40.928701 71.913312 160.924734
2025-11-02 9.340406 12.516405 17.294929 25.621468 41.442251 75.426607 181.218060
2025-11-09 9.004802 12.176738 17.022356 25.644889 42.548568 80.709620 211.769015
2025-11-16 8.646154 11.782389 16.636238 25.431640 43.155007 85.003451 242.848623
2025-11-23 8.322811 11.424646 16.284834 25.246126 43.793085 89.590268 280.246852
2025-11-30 8.022039 11.085849 15.941532 25.041031 44.357342 94.173224 323.712232
2025-12-07 7.765035 10.802627 15.672043 24.948204 45.157791 99.713966 381.278668
2025-12-14 7.496583 10.487730 15.328994 24.680873 45.516098 104.072959 440.215367
2025-12-21 7.442603 10.514840 15.572189 25.586745 48.820803 119.231849 621.985645
2025-12-28 7.215552 10.247691 15.284637 25.394155 49.380220 125.272784 747.417530
2026-01-04 7.018210 10.020709 15.054898 25.299869 50.181336 132.614991 925.915943
2026-01-11 6.890866 9.904093 15.014903 25.598303 52.077505 145.267193 1279.749131
2026-01-18 6.700981 9.674172 14.756621 25.407009 52.608116 152.549752 1621.808287